New Housing Needs Assessment Quantifies State’s Shortfall
The numbers are staggering:
- 590,186 new housing units by 2045.
- An additional 252,498 new households in the same timeframe.
- A deficit of nearly 2,000 acres of land zoned for higher-density housing.
These were the conclusions reached in the Maryland Department of Housing and Community Development’s 2025 update to the state’s Housing Needs Assessment, last conducted in 2020. The report shows not only how much our housing shortage has grown in those past five years, but also highlights some of the reasons why:
1. Yes, It’s Zoning…
Despite local government claims to the contrary, our housing shortage can be traced directly to zoning practices. Rather than using zoning to encourage development and allow for a variety of housing types, all too often it is used for the opposite: to limit rather than expand the type and number of housing units; to make houses and lots larger instead of smaller; and to increase housing costs rather than decrease them.
Those aren’t abstract claims. DHCD’s analysis notes that Maryland’s local land use laws are more restrictive than our surrounding states. This results in Maryland having the highest proportion of cost-burdened renters and the second highest proportion of cost-burdened homeowners in the Mid-Atlantic.
2….and Other Policies Too
Even when there is land available, housing developments may not materialize. The report gives pointed criticism to Adequate Public Facilities Ordinances (APFOs). While designed to pace infrastructure improvements with housing growth, APFOs often serve as de facto building moratoria in areas where housing demand is greatest.
While the Assessment did not address the issue of rent control, we would be remiss for not pointing to its effect on housing production. Montgomery County’s rent control policies have nearly eliminated multi-family building permit applications, as national home builders have abandoned new projects in the county, and in some cases, in Maryland as a whole.
3. Housing Construction is Slowing, Not Accelerating
The pace of home construction in Maryland has flatlined. Since 2020, overall permitting has been stagnant and single-family housing permits have actually declined. While housing growth has slowed nationally, ours is more severe. Maryland is issuing 45% fewer permits than we did 25 years ago, while nationwide the decrease was just 8%.
This pace of home building will not provide the number of homes that we need to fill our current backlog or meet future needs. In fact, Maryland’s pace of home building would need to increase by 71%, to a total of 29,500 units each year between now and 2045, to close our housing gap.
4. We Aren’t Building the Right Things
Maryland, through its local governments, has designated enough land to build the detached single-family housing options we need. But we are not coming nearly close enough to building denser housing (10+ units per acre) that is close to transportation options, service providers, and employment centers.
The report states that we would need approximately 2,000 more acres identified for this type of growth in coming years. This is particularly important to serve the needs of an ageing population and a frustrated workforce that has started to look elsewhere to meet their housing needs.
What it Means
Policy leaders at the state and local levels need to worry more about solving problems than they do protecting local control, and to listen to constituents more than they listen to NIMBYs. Particularly as we head into an election year, Marylanders can hold our officials accountable for delivering results on housing.
More importantly, by advocating for zoning reforms, streamlined regulations, increased housing production, and diversifying housing types, we can build a more affordable and stable housing future here in Maryland.